Rain for Montgomery???

HR9121 · 04-12-2015, 06:28 PM

Ms Patsy I don't put alot of faith in the long range forecast anymore, remember Belle Rose. Charlotte was supposed to be cleared out early on Friday morning and we know how that turned out. Unfortunately my wife had already made plans for this weekend for her and a girlfriend to go see Jimmy Buffett in Tampa so I won't have to make a decision unless someone wants to babysit at the track for me!

Michael Beard · 04-12-2015, 09:38 PM

Please refer to the Richmond thread. Long-range forecasts are consistently, demonstrably WRONG. There's a simple scientific reason why it is an impossible task, but I won't bore you right now. Anything past a 5-day forecast is professional malpractice.

Stephen & Horace Johnson · 04-13-2015, 09:23 AM

For what it's worth...I live 2hrs away and it has rained off and on every day for a 3 weeks....and it's showing nothing less than 60% all week except for saturday shows no rain...

I really hope it clears up and the rainman moves away..

Michael Beard · 04-13-2015, 10:33 AM

The weekend prior to the Piedmont Pro-Am, forecasts showed 90% all weekend long and racers were going crazy, wondering when they were going to reschedule it, etc, etc. The long-range forecast was complete garbage, and we had an absolutely beautiful, picture-perfect weekend.

I have been tracking long-range forecasts AND how they change for a couple of years now. I save a screenshot each day, and they will change by more than 15 degrees and +/- 60%. It's chaos theory. It is not physically possible to make accurate long-range predictions due to the number of variables involved, and if any one initial constraint is off by the tiniest nano-anything, that error compounds exponentially over time.

Tuesday prior to a race weekend is the earliest that you will get even a decent look at the forecast... and even those are frequently wrong. I've even seen them wrong in real time, which is truly stunning... Save yourself the stress.

These are actual pictures from actual forecasts:

HR9121 · 04-13-2015, 11:29 AM

I must admit it looks real gloomy at the moment, I wouldn't pack the fridge yet.

Jim Bailey · 04-13-2015, 04:02 PM

Rescheduled Larry ! June 5, 6 and 7

04-12-2015, 06:28 PM	#1
HR9121 Live Reporter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: New Bern, NC Posts: 3,467 Likes: 146 Liked 3,363 Times in 731 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Ms Patsy I don't put alot of faith in the long range forecast anymore, remember Belle Rose. Charlotte was supposed to be cleared out early on Friday morning and we know how that turned out. Unfortunately my wife had already made plans for this weekend for her and a girlfriend to go see Jimmy Buffett in Tampa so I won't have to make a decision unless someone wants to babysit at the track for me! __________________ James Williamson W200 J/SA. SS/JA

04-12-2015, 09:38 PM	#2
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 13 Times in 9 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Please refer to the Richmond thread. Long-range forecasts are consistently, demonstrably WRONG. There's a simple scientific reason why it is an impossible task, but I won't bore you right now. Anything past a 5-day forecast is professional malpractice. __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS

04-13-2015, 09:23 AM	#3
Stephen & Horace Johnson Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 963 Likes: 341 Liked 161 Times in 52 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? For what it's worth...I live 2hrs away and it has rained off and on every day for a 3 weeks....and it's showing nothing less than 60% all week except for saturday shows no rain... I really hope it clears up and the rainman moves away.. __________________ Stephen Johnson #2162 Horace Johnson #2167 SS/D 427 Ford Fairlane NHRA-IHRA Last edited by Stephen & Horace Johnson; 04-13-2015 at 09:28 AM.

04-13-2015, 10:33 AM	#4
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 13 Times in 9 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? The weekend prior to the Piedmont Pro-Am, forecasts showed 90% all weekend long and racers were going crazy, wondering when they were going to reschedule it, etc, etc. The long-range forecast was complete garbage, and we had an absolutely beautiful, picture-perfect weekend. I have been tracking long-range forecasts AND how they change for a couple of years now. I save a screenshot each day, and they will change by more than 15 degrees and +/- 60%. It's chaos theory. It is not physically possible to make accurate long-range predictions due to the number of variables involved, and if any one initial constraint is off by the tiniest nano-anything, that error compounds exponentially over time. Tuesday prior to a race weekend is the earliest that you will get even a decent look at the forecast... and even those are frequently wrong. I've even seen them wrong in real time, which is truly stunning... Save yourself the stress. These are actual pictures from actual forecasts: __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS

04-13-2015, 11:29 AM	#5
HR9121 Live Reporter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: New Bern, NC Posts: 3,467 Likes: 146 Liked 3,363 Times in 731 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? I must admit it looks real gloomy at the moment, I wouldn't pack the fridge yet. __________________ James Williamson W200 J/SA. SS/JA

04-13-2015, 04:02 PM	#6
Jim Bailey Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 674 Likes: 15 Liked 584 Times in 94 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Rescheduled Larry ! June 5, 6 and 7 Last edited by Jim Bailey; 04-13-2015 at 04:27 PM.