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Old 03-19-2020, 04:17 AM   #1
modelman1960
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Default Covid-19 Facts

Good morning all. I thought I'd start a separate thread with some Covid-19 facts that were provided by my daughter who is an infectious diseases Doctor that works in N.Y.C. She wrote this for me yesterday with the intention of helping to dispel some of the panic and fear. Yes this is a serious thing, but common sense and more knowledge is always a good thing. The numbers are for comparison purposes to the Flu, and you likely won't hear it from the media. I just want all our racers and their families to be more informed so they can make better decisions for their lives. It's a lot of data, but worthy of the time .

Please be safe and let's hope we can get back to racing soon.
God Bless.
Walt
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:36 AM   #2
modelman1960
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Red face Re: Covid-19 Facts

Sorry folks........ the second page doesn't open for some reason unknown by me. It mainly talks about percentages and how they will vary based on the testing priorities, plus following the distancing instructions, good hygiene and avoiding contact with your face. That to me will be the challenge. How often do we touch our face and not even realize it.
Stay safe.
Walt
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Old 03-19-2020, 07:24 AM   #3
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

Is this published somewhere so we can read the second page? It's well written and I would like to be able to read the rest of it. Thank her for writing it for us.



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Old 03-19-2020, 07:36 AM   #4
Mike Fuller
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

At this time your chances of testing positive are .00027%. 80% of those who test positive have mild sysptoms. 12% have no sysptoms. 60% of those that have passed away are 80 years or older.

The swine flu killed 12,600 americans and sickened 50 million. I don't remember any of this kind of madness going on.

Every year 12,000 to 14,000 Americans die from the flu. Doesn't make the news right?

Keep yourself rested and eating healthy. This will be behind us by mid May to early June according to a microbiologist I work with. Just like a normal flu season
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Old 03-19-2020, 09:55 AM   #5
modelman1960
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

Curtis: I'll have to re-scan it and convert it to a jpg. Then I'll attach it.
Yo Ken had to help me the 1st time around, but I think it had to do with the size. Page 2 is shorter. I have to do this from work, hopefully this afternoon. Thanks for your compliment on my daughter's writing. She's a brilliant Lady and I'm amazed she's mine to be honest.
Please stand by.
Walt
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:27 AM   #6
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fuller View Post
Every year 12,000 to 14,000 Americans die from the flu. Doesn't make the news right?
We have flu shots that keep the spread of the flu down. Imagine what the flu would be like if we did not have flu shots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fuller View Post
This will be behind us by mid May to early June according to a microbiologist I work with. Just like a normal flu season
Let's keep an eye on Australia to see if your colleague is correct. Right now, Australia has 565 cases there, with 111 of them added yesterday.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:13 AM   #7
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Red face Re: Covid-19 Facts

Hi again all. I'm back at work now.

Attached is page 2 of the sheet I sent earlier this a.m.
Thanks for your interest and stay safe please.
god Bless,
Walt
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:24 AM   #8
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fuller View Post
At this time your chances of testing positive are .00027%. 80% of those who test positive have mild sysptoms. 12% have no sysptoms. 60% of those that have passed away are 80 years or older.

The swine flu killed 12,600 americans and sickened 50 million. I don't remember any of this kind of madness going on.

Every year 12,000 to 14,000 Americans die from the flu. Doesn't make the news right?

Keep yourself rested and eating healthy. This will be behind us by mid May to early June according to a microbiologist I work with. Just like a normal flu season
Shoulda could woulda

Back then systems and responsive leadership were in sync to deal with the Pandemic. We were communicating on a sane basis with other countries and sharing information. We already had a Flu Vaccines out to help people from further infections. The systems worked, few people died compared to the 50 million were affected.

CV19 today the US leadership ignored the issue and calling it a hoax.
There is no Vaccine for CV19 and will not be available for a year.
The Agency that deals with global diseases was shut down two years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ease-outbreak/

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Old 03-19-2020, 11:57 AM   #9
Andrew Hill
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Default Re: Covid-19 Facts

One of my old chemistry professors posted some information that I think is helpful to understand the differences between this and the seasonal flu. I feel like there's so much out there that's either "This is a pandemic, everybody needs to panic" (but doesn't explain why) or "Look at the number of cases, the flu infects and kills way more people than COVID-19 does each year" (without looking at how fast it's growing from a single source or clarifying how it does differ).

Quote:
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who donít understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an ďall human virusĒ. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then itís a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isnít human, and the human immune system doesnít recognize it so, we canít fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years itís only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly itís gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Itís RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, ďslipperyĒ

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a ďhumanĒ virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

Thatís why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And itís a lung eater...And, itís already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now itís hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like youíre unafraid, like it's no big deal, like all the requests for people to stay home and not travel, did not include you is not cool at all..... You are actually being very selfish.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.
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