Ahfs

PONTIAC'S REVENGE · 10-20-2010, 06:43 PM

What is needed:(simpliest form)

*Correct all runs to 29.92 barometer, 60degF, dry air
*Run a bell curve for all of Stock & Super Stock
*Do a bell curve for every engine "family" in Stock & Super Stock
*Establish upper and lower control limits of performance(corrected only)
*Establish a reasonable standard for intake runner ccs.(very bogus and unreasonable to date)
*Establish a reasonable "corrective action" positive and negative
*Have a trained statistical technician for proper recommendations
*Always have a proper representative in charge of all corrective actions.

If we do this we could expect some of the following:
*Establish what engines have a bogus original HP from the factory rating
*Establish what engines have received an unfair advantage due super-ceded parts.
*Establish what engines have unjustified intake runner ccs and other inappropriate specifications
*Establish how to "weight" normally aspirated engines with SC/turbo engines
*Establish the differences in dyno ratings from current HP verses dyno ratings prior to and including 1971.
*Establish what "allowances" like 50 extra cfm, or alum heads does to enhance a combination relative to is prior parts.
*Delineate the difference between an unfair HP and a guy who just is better/spends more than everyone else.

This is high school science! In fact, it probably is junior high school since I haven't been in school for awhile ;-). It can be run on any computer that has Excel or something similar. I am teaching my 10 year old daughter Excel now(along with learning myself....I did it the old way with my 5 cent CPU)

It is amazing what a bit of science can do. I am sure I have left some items out, please elaborate or ask, I will do my best to answer, this is so simple.

Lynn A McCarty
CMI LLC
317-260-3486
lmc3470@aol.com

Billy Nees · 10-20-2010, 07:05 PM

Lynn, give it a rest! It's never gonna happen! It's not simple enough and it would be too time consuming! NHRA isn't going to pay someone to do this and they will not let it be done by an outsider!

PONTIAC'S REVENGE · 10-20-2010, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Billy Nees

Lynn, give it a rest! It's never gonna happen! It's not simple enough and it would be too time consuming! NHRA isn't going to pay someone to do this and they will not let it be done by an outsider!

*Hi Billy! How is that Pontiac 301 running?

*It is very simple all you gotta be is smarter than about a fifth grader. In my Annie's case many might have trouble cause she is brutally smart!

We can send her over as a consultant?

*NHRA doesnt have to pay anyone, I guarantee they have people on staff that can help them do it in about 1/2 day from their IT department.

*Outsider? I thought S/SS was a non-profit card carrying member involvement scenario?

Angelo DiTocco · 10-20-2010, 07:55 PM

Lynn
Some may remember that I made a similar suggestion a while back during the pre-ahfs days. At the time, nhra was batting around the idea of an automatic factoring system partially so that they put in place a set system that was not open to claims of unfairness and/or favoritism & also at the same time place the culpability of getting horsepower in the hands of the racers.

I discussed with several tech folks, the possibility of using past qualifying data to run "standard distributions".... which would as you say, generate a "bell curve".

The problem though, with this is this assumption is.... Your analysis is only as reliable as the data that goes into it.... This would only be a completely fair comparison if variables such as equal preparation of engines.... and the certainty that everyone in the data set were running all out.... and we know this can't be assured.

In NHRA's defense... At the time they did listen and discuss this possibility at length ... however due to the difficulty or even impossibility of contolling for these variables they didn't feel it could work, and I can't say I don't agree. Once the ahfs was born and racers were slowing their stuff down.... the qualifying data became even more unreliable. Ultimately they wanted the racers to be in control of their destiny with regard to factoring.... and they got what they wanted... good or bad... better or worse.

What has happened with the new influx of the Factory Cars will probably (in my opinion) result in separate or new classes for these cars..... until they beat each other up and get HP to bring them in line... at which point they can be reabsorbed (sounds like something out of Star Trek) back into the traditional classes. This seems like the most viable solution to the problem.

Wow - its only 8PM and the Yankee game is over.... I can actually go to bed at a reasonable time.

Jeff Stout · 10-20-2010, 10:31 PM

Lynn, You can have your daughter go ahead and do this project. Let's just see what the outcome would be. Maybe some would be surprised and some would be disappointed.

PONTIAC'S REVENGE · 10-20-2010, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angelo DiTocco

Lynn

The problem though, with this is this assumption is.... Your analysis is only as reliable as the data that goes into it.... This would only be a completely fair comparison if variables such as equal preparation of engines.... and the certainty that everyone in the data set were running all out.... and we know this can't be assured.

In NHRA's defense... At the time they did listen and discuss this possibility at length ... however due to the difficulty or even impossibility of contolling for these variables they didn't feel it could work, and I can't say I don't agree.

I agree with you Angelo in principle your suggestion seems to be right on target, however, I dont agree with what NHRA implemented. The current system does not follow the rules of simple science nor statistics. Any system is subject to data going in including the current system. So the only justification they provide is the justification to do nothing. There is no justification for doing it wrong against the rules of proper statistics.

If they are going to use that justification for not doing proper statistics, then it is the same justification for not doing the current method. As I have stated on here many times, if we used this kind of science in the medical field not many people would survive. This is rudimentary science a fifth grader can understand.

I just hope we can do it better this time around. It is so simple to do it right and so difficult and costly to do it wrong.~~Lynn

PONTIAC'S REVENGE · 10-20-2010, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff Stout

Lynn, You can have your daughter go ahead and do this project. Let's just see what the outcome would be. Maybe some would be surprised and some would be disappointed.

My scenario was simply to communicate that it isnt difficult that even a fifth grader could do it. Of course, I left you out cause there is always an exception to everything....

RPinoski1 · 10-21-2010, 03:45 PM

A quick question.......

What would be fair in your eyes?

Every combo should be able to run 1.25 under.........etc.

Not a loaded question....but what is the goal of the AHFS and what is fair?

10-20-2010, 06:43 PM	#1
PONTIAC'S REVENGE Member Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: CARMEL, INDIANA Posts: 141 Likes: 69 Liked 48 Times in 18 Posts	Ahfs What is needed:(simpliest form) Correct all runs to 29.92 barometer, 60degF, dry air Run a bell curve for all of Stock & Super Stock Do a bell curve for every engine "family" in Stock & Super Stock Establish upper and lower control limits of performance(corrected only) Establish a reasonable standard for intake runner ccs.(very bogus and unreasonable to date) Establish a reasonable "corrective action" positive and negative Have a trained statistical technician for proper recommendations Always have a proper representative in charge of all corrective actions. If we do this we could expect some of the following: Establish what engines have a bogus original HP from the factory rating Establish what engines have received an unfair advantage due super-ceded parts. Establish what engines have unjustified intake runner ccs and other inappropriate specifications Establish how to "weight" normally aspirated engines with SC/turbo engines Establish the differences in dyno ratings from current HP verses dyno ratings prior to and including 1971. Establish what "allowances" like 50 extra cfm, or alum heads does to enhance a combination relative to is prior parts. Delineate the difference between an unfair HP and a guy who just is better/spends more than everyone else. This is high school science! In fact, it probably is junior high school since I haven't been in school for awhile ;-). It can be run on any computer that has Excel or something similar. I am teaching my 10 year old daughter Excel now(along with learning myself....I did it the old way with my 5 cent CPU) It is amazing what a bit of science can do. I am sure I have left some items out, please elaborate or ask, I will do my best to answer, this is so simple. Lynn A McCarty CMI LLC 317-260-3486 lmc3470@aol.com Last edited by PONTIAC'S REVENGE; 10-21-2010 at 02:54 PM.*

10-20-2010, 07:05 PM	#2
Billy Nees VIP Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: On a hilltop in Pa. Posts: 4,486 Likes: 3,587 Liked 7,683 Times in 1,731 Posts	Re: Ahfs Lynn, give it a rest! It's never gonna happen! It's not simple enough and it would be too time consuming! NHRA isn't going to pay someone to do this and they will not let it be done by an outsider! __________________ Billy Nees 1188 STK, SS I'm not spending 100K to win 2K

10-20-2010, 07:55 PM	#4
Angelo DiTocco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NY, NY Posts: 750 Likes: 175 Liked 189 Times in 48 Posts	Re: Ahfs Lynn Some may remember that I made a similar suggestion a while back during the pre-ahfs days. At the time, nhra was batting around the idea of an automatic factoring system partially so that they put in place a set system that was not open to claims of unfairness and/or favoritism & also at the same time place the culpability of getting horsepower in the hands of the racers. I discussed with several tech folks, the possibility of using past qualifying data to run "standard distributions".... which would as you say, generate a "bell curve". The problem though, with this is this assumption is.... Your analysis is only as reliable as the data that goes into it.... This would only be a completely fair comparison if variables such as equal preparation of engines.... and the certainty that everyone in the data set were running all out.... and we know this can't be assured. In NHRA's defense... At the time they did listen and discuss this possibility at length ... however due to the difficulty or even impossibility of contolling for these variables they didn't feel it could work, and I can't say I don't agree. Once the ahfs was born and racers were slowing their stuff down.... the qualifying data became even more unreliable. Ultimately they wanted the racers to be in control of their destiny with regard to factoring.... and they got what they wanted... good or bad... better or worse. What has happened with the new influx of the Factory Cars will probably (in my opinion) result in separate or new classes for these cars..... until they beat each other up and get HP to bring them in line... at which point they can be reabsorbed (sounds like something out of Star Trek) back into the traditional classes. This seems like the most viable solution to the problem. Wow - its only 8PM and the Yankee game is over.... I can actually go to bed at a reasonable time. __________________ Angelo DiTocco '98 Firebird SS/HA '98 Firebird B/SA Last edited by Angelo DiTocco; 10-20-2010 at 09:27 PM.

10-20-2010, 10:31 PM	#5
Jeff Stout VIP Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: phoenix Posts: 1,486 Likes: 66 Liked 704 Times in 281 Posts	Re: Ahfs Lynn, You can have your daughter go ahead and do this project. Let's just see what the outcome would be. Maybe some would be surprised and some would be disappointed.

10-21-2010, 03:45 PM	#8
RPinoski1 Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: PLACERVILLE, CA Posts: 182 Likes: 0 Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: Ahfs A quick question....... What would be fair in your eyes? Every combo should be able to run 1.25 under.........etc. Not a loaded question....but what is the goal of the AHFS and what is fair?

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