Stock and Super Stock Qualifying Predictions

[George Wright]

I put together several predicted qualifying sheets for Stock and Super Stock for the US Nationals. The qualifying sheets were built by using historical run data from February 2019 until August 2021. The Stock database has 40991 runs for this period. The Super Stock database has 31058 runs for this period. This is not all runs for Stock and Super Stock during this period, but is a fairly significant sample size. I scrapped together what all I could find. Of course, some of this data here may not be perfect. I attempted to clean up the data as best as possible. This process simply takes the best run found for a driver number and uses that to build a predicted qualifying sheet. It does not account for density altitude.

[Nick Heath]

George - This is really cool! I love data science projects like this. Not perfect, as you said - and the AFHS will play a factor - but it will be fun to see how close you get.

[Dragrac419]

Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057

[MR DERBY CITY]

Originally Posted by Dragrac419

Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057

This data is OLD NEWS ….Bob hasn’t had the Corvette in years AND Bruce is building a very rare Pontiac stocker. I can’t wait for Bruce to hit the track …

[Larry Hill]

Sure was fun to look at, thanks George.

[james schaechter]

[QUOTE=Dragrac419;646309]Can help with some of the missing runs. I love numbers and thanks for putting this together.

K103 D/S Kyle Kohr '68 Camaro 10.624 11.5 -0.876
3744 F/S Bob Gipson '65 Corvette 11.171 12.1 -0.929
1788 A/SA Bruce Noland '71 Corvette 9.943 11 -1.057[

Bob Gipson is bringing a brand new 65 Nova 327 250 hp stick car.

[rboyle]

I think the data is off a tick or two. There are 20 cars going faster than -1.20 which is highly unlikely. Some of them you have going faster than ghey ever have some slower than usual. I give you credit though. It is impressive and I'm sure there was a ton of work put into it. The bump is probably close to right though. We'll see in less than a week. Good luck all!

[George Wright]

Originally Posted by rboyle

I think the data is off a tick or two. There are 20 cars going faster than -1.20 which is highly unlikely. Some of them you have going faster than ghey ever have some slower than usual. I give you credit though. It is impressive and I'm sure there was a ton of work put into it. The bump is probably close to right though. We'll see in less than a week. Good luck all!

20 cars going faster than -1.20 is not "unlikely". I am attaching an updated list of where the best runs were recorded. Most were from previous US Nationals and National Opens (no AHFS).

So give me some actual examples from the last 3 years to show me who is being reported as "slower than usual".