Rain for Montgomery???

Larry Hill · 04-12-2015, 05:08 PM

The forecast isn't looking too good for Montgomery, Division 2 Lucas Oil points race next weekend! I wonder if they are considering postponing it? Of course the weather could change before then, too. Right now it is 90% chance on Friday, 20% on Saturday and 70% on Sunday!

So who all is planning on going??

Patsy

BLIND MULE · 04-12-2015, 05:32 PM

Jim Howard will do more than most many track operators to get a race in he also pays close attention to the weather ! Been racing there since the place opened in 95 seen some pretty nasty storms come up reason being the track is close to the Ala river also track was built on wet lands! The weather around Montgomery changes about every 5 minutes drives the weather man crazy? Hope it cools off a little and what ever you do bring some SKEETER spray they can get a little gnarley at times! Don't know if you ever been before but the track is easy to get too and anything you may need is within a few minutes from the track. Maybe Hugh Meeks will see this and chime in ?
Have a safe trip !!!!

Randy

HR9121 · 04-12-2015, 06:28 PM

Ms Patsy I don't put alot of faith in the long range forecast anymore, remember Belle Rose. Charlotte was supposed to be cleared out early on Friday morning and we know how that turned out. Unfortunately my wife had already made plans for this weekend for her and a girlfriend to go see Jimmy Buffett in Tampa so I won't have to make a decision unless someone wants to babysit at the track for me!

Michael Beard · 04-12-2015, 09:38 PM

Please refer to the Richmond thread. Long-range forecasts are consistently, demonstrably WRONG. There's a simple scientific reason why it is an impossible task, but I won't bore you right now. Anything past a 5-day forecast is professional malpractice.

Stephen & Horace Johnson · 04-13-2015, 09:23 AM

For what it's worth...I live 2hrs away and it has rained off and on every day for a 3 weeks....and it's showing nothing less than 60% all week except for saturday shows no rain...

I really hope it clears up and the rainman moves away..

Michael Beard · 04-13-2015, 10:33 AM

The weekend prior to the Piedmont Pro-Am, forecasts showed 90% all weekend long and racers were going crazy, wondering when they were going to reschedule it, etc, etc. The long-range forecast was complete garbage, and we had an absolutely beautiful, picture-perfect weekend.

I have been tracking long-range forecasts AND how they change for a couple of years now. I save a screenshot each day, and they will change by more than 15 degrees and +/- 60%. It's chaos theory. It is not physically possible to make accurate long-range predictions due to the number of variables involved, and if any one initial constraint is off by the tiniest nano-anything, that error compounds exponentially over time.

Tuesday prior to a race weekend is the earliest that you will get even a decent look at the forecast... and even those are frequently wrong. I've even seen them wrong in real time, which is truly stunning... Save yourself the stress.

These are actual pictures from actual forecasts:

HR9121 · 04-13-2015, 11:29 AM

I must admit it looks real gloomy at the moment, I wouldn't pack the fridge yet.

Jim Bailey · 04-13-2015, 04:02 PM

Rescheduled Larry ! June 5, 6 and 7

04-12-2015, 05:08 PM	#1
Larry Hill Live Reporter Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Hickory, Ky Posts: 10,351 Likes: 1,695 Liked 9,675 Times in 2,014 Posts	Rain for Montgomery??? The forecast isn't looking too good for Montgomery, Division 2 Lucas Oil points race next weekend! I wonder if they are considering postponing it? Of course the weather could change before then, too. Right now it is 90% chance on Friday, 20% on Saturday and 70% on Sunday! So who all is planning on going?? Patsy __________________ IHM Used Parts https://ihmusedparts.com 888-821-1817

04-12-2015, 05:32 PM	#2
BLIND MULE Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Alabama Posts: 319 Likes: 0 Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Jim Howard will do more than most many track operators to get a race in he also pays close attention to the weather ! Been racing there since the place opened in 95 seen some pretty nasty storms come up reason being the track is close to the Ala river also track was built on wet lands! The weather around Montgomery changes about every 5 minutes drives the weather man crazy? Hope it cools off a little and what ever you do bring some SKEETER spray they can get a little gnarley at times! Don't know if you ever been before but the track is easy to get too and anything you may need is within a few minutes from the track. Maybe Hugh Meeks will see this and chime in ? Have a safe trip !!!! Randy

04-12-2015, 06:28 PM	#3
HR9121 Live Reporter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: New Bern, NC Posts: 3,371 Likes: 117 Liked 3,005 Times in 657 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Ms Patsy I don't put alot of faith in the long range forecast anymore, remember Belle Rose. Charlotte was supposed to be cleared out early on Friday morning and we know how that turned out. Unfortunately my wife had already made plans for this weekend for her and a girlfriend to go see Jimmy Buffett in Tampa so I won't have to make a decision unless someone wants to babysit at the track for me! __________________ James Williamson W200 J/SA

04-12-2015, 09:38 PM	#4
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 12 Times in 8 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Please refer to the Richmond thread. Long-range forecasts are consistently, demonstrably WRONG. There's a simple scientific reason why it is an impossible task, but I won't bore you right now. Anything past a 5-day forecast is professional malpractice. __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS

04-13-2015, 09:23 AM	#5
Stephen & Horace Johnson Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 952 Likes: 325 Liked 151 Times in 48 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? For what it's worth...I live 2hrs away and it has rained off and on every day for a 3 weeks....and it's showing nothing less than 60% all week except for saturday shows no rain... I really hope it clears up and the rainman moves away.. __________________ Stephen Johnson #2162 Horace Johnson #2167 SS/D 427 Ford Fairlane NHRA-IHRA Last edited by Stephen & Horace Johnson; 04-13-2015 at 09:28 AM.

04-13-2015, 10:33 AM	#6
Michael Beard VIP Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,060 Likes: 0 Liked 12 Times in 8 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? The weekend prior to the Piedmont Pro-Am, forecasts showed 90% all weekend long and racers were going crazy, wondering when they were going to reschedule it, etc, etc. The long-range forecast was complete garbage, and we had an absolutely beautiful, picture-perfect weekend. I have been tracking long-range forecasts AND how they change for a couple of years now. I save a screenshot each day, and they will change by more than 15 degrees and +/- 60%. It's chaos theory. It is not physically possible to make accurate long-range predictions due to the number of variables involved, and if any one initial constraint is off by the tiniest nano-anything, that error compounds exponentially over time. Tuesday prior to a race weekend is the earliest that you will get even a decent look at the forecast... and even those are frequently wrong. I've even seen them wrong in real time, which is truly stunning... Save yourself the stress. These are actual pictures from actual forecasts: __________________ Michael Beard - NHRA/IHRA 3216 S/SS

04-13-2015, 11:29 AM	#7
HR9121 Live Reporter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: New Bern, NC Posts: 3,371 Likes: 117 Liked 3,005 Times in 657 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? I must admit it looks real gloomy at the moment, I wouldn't pack the fridge yet. __________________ James Williamson W200 J/SA

04-13-2015, 04:02 PM	#8
Jim Bailey Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 714 Likes: 17 Liked 627 Times in 120 Posts	Re: Rain for Montgomery??? Rescheduled Larry ! June 5, 6 and 7 Last edited by Jim Bailey; 04-13-2015 at 04:27 PM.