Quote:
Originally Posted by Chad Rhodes
Bill, read very carefully what I am writing here.
1) i, and most others, believe what you are saying about it being fair, its right there if you do the math. SO give that argument up.
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Chad, I'm not sure what math you are referring to but I've showed the math on the last thread. I'll show it again at the end of this post. Bill Dedman and his supporters are the only ones making sense. The rule clearly favors faster cars from a probability standpoint. Who cares if Bill is a bracket racer? I am a bracket racer too. Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know if you've noticed but from Friday-Sunday, Stock and Super Stock are in fact bracket races. I still have not read one single valid argument defending the rule as it stands, not even one! Unless of course "That's the way it is.. Stop whining...Bill is only a bracket racer, not a SS racer..." can be considered valid with their clear and concise reasoning.
If the only thing keeping it from being changed however many years ago was a software issue, then there is no reason not to change it now.
The Worst red light rule is currently in effect for Top Fuel, Funny Car, Pro Stock, Pro Stock Bike, Super Street, Super Comp, Super Gas, Super Stock Class, and Stock Class. Why not for Stock and Super Stock eliminations? As far as brackets, the rule should also be introduced and enforced in all classes, especially in Super Eliminator where both drivers leave off the top bulb at the same time with the crosstalk feature. Give me one good reason why the first guy to redlight should ever lose in Super? I'm guessing his dragster might possibly distract the other dragster's delay box..
Here it is in stat terms again. We will use discrete probability and analyze our sample space of four possible outcomes:
both drivers green, first guy green and second guy red, first guy red and second guy green, both drivers red. In order for an event to be a "fair" event in the world of probability, all possible outcomes but possess equal probability, in this case each of the 4 outcomes should have a probability of
1/4 or .25. With our current system, the first two scenarios possess a probability of
.25 (Probability of first guy going green = .5 AND probability of second guy going green = .5 so we multiply these to get a probability of .25 for this outcome. Same calculation for second outcome)
However, the third scenario possesses a probability of
1/2 or .5. (Probability of first guy going red = .5 AND probability of second guy going green = 1 since he/she has already won. Multiply these and we get .5). The probability of the last event is actually 0 because currently it can't happen and we revert to scenario 3. Since each outcome doesn't have the same probability, this event fails the "fair" event test.
Conclusion: The first driver to leave is 25% more likely to lose the race on the starting line than the second driver.